TOKYO — If recognition have been the deciding issue, there could be a transparent front-runner to turn into the following prime minister of Japan.
Polls have discovered that the general public favors Taro Kono, the cupboard minister overseeing Japan’s coronavirus vaccine rollout, by at the very least two to 1 within the race to steer the governing Liberal Democratic Celebration — which, in impact, is the race to turn into prime minister. His Twitter following of two.4 million dwarfs these of his three rivals mixed.
However within the again rooms the place Japanese political selections are made, Mr. Kono, 58, will not be practically as properly favored. His popularity because the Liberal Democrats’ most outspoken nonconformist and his left-leaning views on social points put him out of step with the social gathering’s conservative elders.
These folks can have appreciable sway on Wednesday because the Liberal Democrats select a successor to Yoshihide Suga, the unpopular present prime minister and social gathering chief, who mentioned this month that he would step apart. Whoever takes his place will lead the social gathering right into a common election that have to be held by the tip of November.
In previous social gathering management elections, unity has made the winner a foregone conclusion. However this time, the political horse buying and selling has generally appeared at odds with standard sentiment, at the same time as the general public has expressed dissatisfaction with the social gathering’s management on the pandemic and the economic system. That disconnect partly displays complacency among the many Liberal Democrats, who’ve been in energy for all however a couple of years since 1955 and appear assured that they are going to win the overall election regardless of who they select.
“Proper now, their pondering is that they’ll’t lose to the opposition,” mentioned Masato Kamikubo, a professor of political science at Ritsumeikan College in Kyoto.
Because the minister accountable for vaccines, he has generally responded personally to Twitter customers’ questions. Fumie Sakamoto, an an infection management supervisor at St. Luke’s Worldwide Hospital in Tokyo, mentioned she believed his private contact might have helped ease public fears concerning the vaccines.
“He’s all the time been keen to speak about vaccination in a constructive and easy-to-understand method,” Ms. Sakamoto mentioned. After a gradual begin within the first half of the yr, greater than half of the inhabitants in Japan is now absolutely vaccinated, placing it forward of the USA and plenty of different international locations across the Pacific Rim.
However different points have put Mr. Kono on the flawed aspect of his social gathering’s energy brokers.
He has repeatedly voiced his opposition to nuclear energy, a sacred cow for the Liberal Democrats. He now helps same-sex marriage and a proposal to alter a legislation requiring married {couples} to share a surname for authorized functions — positions which are standard with the general public however opposed by the social gathering’s influential proper wing.
Mr. Abe, who resigned final yr due to in poor health well being, has backed Sanae Takaichi, 60, a hard-line conservative, for the management. Ms. Takaichi, who could be Japan’s first feminine prime minister, has robust backing from the fitting wing of the social gathering, however her ballot numbers are low. One other lady within the management race, Seiko Noda, 61, has little assist from both the general public or the social gathering.
Many Liberal Democratic members of Parliament take into account Fumio Kishida, 64, a average with tepid assist within the polls, to be the most secure selection, in line with media tallies of lawmakers.
Mr. Kono, whose father and grandfather have been each Liberal Democratic lawmakers, has lengthy made it clear that he needs to be prime minister. However he didn’t comply with a conventional path to energy. He left a spot at certainly one of Japan’s most prestigious personal universities, Keio, to check at Georgetown in Washington as an alternative.
Mr. Kono’s polished English and intensive journey expertise as international minister would make him a welcome selection for prime minister amongst Japan’s allies, political analysts mentioned. “For Washington, he could be essentially the most snug individual,” mentioned Shihoko Goto, a senior affiliate for Northeast Asia on the Wilson Middle in Washington.
On China, Mr. Kono doesn’t invoke the form of hawkish rhetoric that Ms. Takaichi and Mr. Kishida have been utilizing throughout the marketing campaign, however he could be prone to preserve the social gathering’s insurance policies on navy cooperation with the USA, Australia and India.
Given his work on diplomatic and navy points — Mr. Kono additionally served as Mr. Abe’s protection minister — he’s “most likely the best-prepared individual for the prime ministership in that sense,” mentioned Narushige Michishita, vp of the Nationwide Graduate Institute for Coverage Research in Tokyo.
However some say his confidence has led to conceitedness and even impetuosity. Final yr, as protection minister, he determined with little session to cancel a plan to purchase an American missile protection system, angering Japanese navy leaders who heard concerning the determination after the very fact.
“Perhaps he’s too American,” mentioned Kunihiko Miyake, a former diplomat who has been an adviser to Mr. Suga. “He’s very direct, trustworthy, generally blunt,” Mr. Miyake added. “And generally so self-righteous that no person can catch up or no person feels keen to assist.”
Mr. Kono, who declined to be interviewed for this text, has a popularity for being short-tempered with Japanese bureaucrats. He just lately crusaded towards the fax machines which are nonetheless utilized in authorities places of work, making waves by taking up one of many shibboleths of the paperwork.
In an interview with the Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan’s largest each day newspaper, Mr. Kono acknowledged that he would possibly want to talk extra fastidiously. “Nevertheless, I don’t intend to mince phrases on the subject of declaring the fallacies of bureaucratic pondering that’s not attuned to actuality,” he mentioned.
On Twitter, he has additionally turn into reasonably infamous because the Japanese politician most certainly to dam his critics — a lot in order that he spawned a hashtag, #IwasblockedbyKonoTaro, in Japanese. When requested concerning the follow in an interview with TBS, a broadcaster, he defended it.
“I don’t really feel the necessity to have a dialog with folks I don’t know who slander me,” he mentioned.
Masahiko Abe, a professor of English and American literature on the College of Tokyo, mentioned he was blocked by Mr. Kono after suggesting that the minister didn’t perceive the federal government’s coverage on college entrance exams.
“I don’t thoughts that he’s generally aggressive and even boastful on occasion,” Mr. Abe mentioned. However, he added, “If he says something flawed, I believe now we have the fitting to appropriate him.”
Individuals who have labored with Mr. Kono mentioned he believed that coverage debates have been extra productive in the event that they have been rigorous. “The explanation why he understands the dialogue is as a result of he’s demanding,” mentioned Mika Ohbayashi, a director on the Renewable Vitality Institute, a analysis and advocacy group, who served on a local weather change advisory panel with Mr. Kono.
As a candidate for the management, Mr. Kono has calibrated a few of his previous positions. Regardless of his opposition to nuclear energy, he mentioned he supported the restart of Japan’s nuclear crops — the overwhelming majority of which have been idled for the reason that triple meltdown in Fukushima 10 years in the past — as a part of a plan to scale back greenhouse fuel emissions.
“He’s taking a look at his liabilities and he’s making an attempt to determine how he can cement assist inside the social gathering,” mentioned Mireya Solís, co-director of the Middle for East Asia Coverage Research on the Brookings Establishment.
Hikari Hida contributed reporting.
